## Risk Innovation and Rethinking Risk Most of Andrew Maynard's professional life has been involved with risk in one way or another. His early research focused on reducing health risks from inhaled particles. He worked extensively on the risks of nanotechnology. He has taught risk assessment, written about risk, and run academic centers devoted to risk. And if there is one thing all that experience has taught him, it is that he has less and less patience for how many people think about risk. The problem, as *Films from the Future* lays it out, is that established approaches to risk work reasonably well for conventional technologies, but they run out of steam fast when we are facing technologies that can achieve things we never imagined. We are, in Maynard's Biblical metaphor, desperately trying to squeeze the new wine of technological innovation into the old wineskins of conventional risk thinking. At some point, something is going to give. ### Beyond Physical Harm Traditional risk assessment tends to focus on measurable things: the probability of physical harm, the extent of environmental damage, the number of people affected. These are important, and they are not going away. But emerging technologies threaten things that are much harder to measure -- and, Maynard argues, just as important. This is where the movies become unexpectedly revealing. In each film, the characters risk losing something of great importance. In [Jurassic Park](/movies_jurassic_park.html), it is John Hammond's dream. In [Never Let Me Go](/movies_never_let_me_go.html), it is Tommy's hope for the future. In [Ghost in the Shell](/movies_ghost_in_the_shell.html), it is Major Kusanagi's sense of who and what she is. These are not physical risks. They are threats to dignity, belonging, identity, belief -- to things that are so important to us that our lives are diminished if they are taken away. By revealing these less obvious risks, the movies open up new and powerful ways of thinking about developing technologies without causing unnecessary harm. The risk is not just that a technology might hurt someone physically. It is that it might erode what makes their life meaningful. ### What Is Risk Innovation? This insight is at the heart of what Maynard calls "risk innovation" -- the framework where much of his current academic work lies. Over the past couple of hundred years, we have become quite adept at developing new ways of causing harm, and equally adept at developing methods of assessing and managing those risks. But those methods belong to a different world than the one we are now creating. Risk innovation is the idea that, in order to navigate a radically shifting risk landscape, we need equally radical innovation in how we think about and act on risk. It means rethinking risk so that it revolves around threats to what is important to us -- not just what can be physically measured, but what we value, aspire to, and cannot bear to lose. Health and environmental safety remain essential. But so do the less tangible things: a community's sense of identity, an individual's autonomy, a society's capacity for trust. This work connects directly to the Risk Innovation Nexus that Maynard established at Arizona State University, and to a career trajectory that has taken him from physicist to risk scientist to professor of Advanced Technology Transitions. It reflects a conviction that has grown over decades: the frameworks we use to govern technology must evolve as fast as the technologies themselves. ### Risk at the Core of Every Movie Risk is at the core of every film in the book, though it is not always apparent that risk is what keeps you glued to the screen. Most of us think about risk in terms of someone's life being in danger or the environment being threatened, and there is plenty of that. But the movies also explore subtler dynamics. The tension in [Ex Machina](/movies_ex_machina.html) comes not from the physical danger of an AI on the loose, but from the way it exploits human vulnerabilities. The drama in [The Man in the White Suit](/movies_man_in_the_white_suit.html) arises from a scientist who never considered that his invention might threaten other people's livelihoods. Watching these films with an open mind can reveal subtle connections between irresponsible innovation and threats to what people value. And those connections have profound implications for how we think about [responsible innovation](/ntf_responsible_innovation_practice.html) and the question of [who gets to decide](/ntf_everyone_has_a_role.html) how technologies are developed. ### A New Way of Seeing Risk innovation is not a set of rules. It is a way of seeing. It asks us to look at emerging technologies and ask not just "what could go wrong?" but "what is at stake?" -- and to recognize that what is at stake extends well beyond what conventional risk frameworks are equipped to handle. In a world of [converging technologies](/ntf_technological_convergence.html) and [complex systems](/ntf_complexity_chaos.html), this shift in perspective is not optional. It is essential. And it starts with a willingness to take seriously the things that matter most to people, even when -- especially when -- those things resist measurement. ## Further Reading - [Could OpenAI have benefitted from this tool for navigating complex risks?](https://www.futureofbeinghuman.com/p/ai-and-risk-innovation) — Andrew Maynard examines the concept of risk innovation through the lens of AI development, asking whether organizations like OpenAI could benefit from fundamentally rethinking how they approach risk. The piece illustrates how conventional risk frameworks fall short when dealing with technologies that threaten not just physical safety but dignity, identity, and autonomy. - [Designing the technological futures we aspire to](https://www.futureofbeinghuman.com/p/designing-responsible-technological-futures) — This essay connects the practice of risk innovation to the broader challenge of designing technological futures that reflect what people actually value. Maynard argues that reimagining risk is inseparable from reimagining the innovation process itself. - [OECD: Risk Management and Innovation](https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/risk-management.html) — The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development provides policy frameworks and research on how governments and institutions can manage the risks of emerging technologies. Their work offers a global perspective on the institutional challenges of adapting risk governance to a rapidly changing technological landscape.